Risk and Simulation-based Optimization of Channel Depths: a Case Study at the Entrance Channel of Cam Pha Coal Port

This paper presents a new simulation model for long-term optimization of channel depths in which the risk of ship grounding due to wave impacts can be considered for every ship transit. This new model includes four main components: (1) an exponential probability law for a number of ship departures; (2) a parametric model of the wave-induced ship motions; (3) modeling effects of tidal variations on the channel performance; and (4) a Poisson probability law for grounding model in a single random ship departure. A key procedure of the simulation process is to define a minimum underkeel clearance allowance for ship entrance and simultaneously determine downtime that correspond to an acceptable grounding risk for a specified ship and a generated environment condition. This new approach makes the simulation model more realistic as met in the real world port activities. So the results achieved from this model are more accurate than those from other methods. The model has been applied to the entrance channel of Cam Pha Coal Port, Vietnam as a case study. keywords: Ship grounding, risk modeling, simulation model, entrance channel, and optimal design